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How To Think Clearly

What if it is possible?

ThoughtLife ManagementBooks

September 21, 2026

Ivan Shishkin, Noon. Neighborhoods of Moscow, 1869
Ivan Shishkin, Noon. Neighborhoods of Moscow, 1869

Meta

There is a best outcome for each situation. It is the one that helps the most in the long run (i.e. gets you what you really want), differing from the default focusing on the situation’s route of least resistance.

Clear thinking is the mental process of aiming at and creating this best outcome.

Outcomes are affected by innumerable external factors, thus, a statistically good decision making process is the best use of time and thinking. To wit, make all thinking and decision-making as visible and open to scrutiny as possible.

Establishing Good Baselines

Before a decision rears its head, circumstances must exist. A more conscious and pleasurable life experience depends on rarely being forced into a decision by these circumstances. This means always thinking of the best outcome, i.e. no thoughtless action, actionless desire or panicking. These three are typically downhill from problematic defaults, such as:

  1. Running from thinking.
  2. Conforming to a group.
  3. Reacting to perceived threats to self-worth or hierarchy.
  4. Reacting to feelings instead of facts.
  5. Resisting change, for the familiar.

To act against these defaults, better habits are necessary, viz:

  1. Self-control:

    Default to putting distance between your actions and emotions. To help, take a normal inhale and then immediately a smaller inhale.

  2. Self-knowledge:

    Have rules so you need not decide, add friction to stick to rules.

  3. Self-confidence:

    Confidence is deep trust from consistent satisfactory execution.

  4. Self-accountability:

    You need higher standards for yourself. Maintained standards give desired outcomes. Which people have my desires as their defaults? Base standards on theirs.

Method

Pre-Decision

The best decision comes from knowing that a certain option is the best one.

Define

Write down what you think the problem is.

What am I trying to achieve?

Jargon here means you need to better understand the problem and hold off on any judgment till you do.

Explore

List satisfactory criteria. Imagine satisfactory possible futures to help.

What would have to be true for this problem not to exist in the first place?

Imagine at least three routes to this future. Take options off the table to help.

Evaluate

For each route, ask:

  1. Will this move me closer to my priority? How?
  2. Is this a truly permanent fix?
  3. What happens if things go poorly? or properly?

Compare options and secondary results, rank with currency of time, money, or brainpower.

Decision

If undo cost is low, decide ASAP. If it is high:

  1. Decide ALAP (L = late), i.e. only when you:
    1. stop getting useful information, or
    2. first lose an opportunity (FLOP), or
    3. find preponderant evidence of the best option
  2. Have large margins of safety.
  3. Set up trip wires (negative signs and the absence of positive signs) for what you'll do when you hit a specific quantifiable time, amount, or circumstance.
  4. Do pre-commit checks
    1. If you knew you’d die tomorrow, would you want to do this?
    2. Do your brain and your heart and your guts all agree with it? If not, be honest and dig deeper.
    3. Explain the decision and reasons in a note and sleep on it before telling anyone.

Post-Decision

Assistive Review

  1. Who needs to know your goals?
  2. Do they know the top priority?
  3. Do they know the positive and negative trip wires?
  4. What do they know about this problem from experience that I (or other people) don't?
  5. What would be their process for deciding in my shoes?
    1. What variables will they consider?
    2. How do the variables relate?
  6. What would be their process for executing?

In all these, keep in mind their personal incentives as you update your decision making process.

Staying On-Course

  1. Is the top priority still the top priority? If not, what is?
  2. What will the top priority take now?
  3. Is there a way to ensure I stick to the path I've decided is best?

Reviewing Past Decisions

  1. Did the expected result happen for the reasons you thought?
  2. What did you know at the time of decision?
  3. Did predictions happen for the reasons you thought?

Mistake handling

  1. accept responsibility,
  2. do a honest post-mortem:
    1. were you were unlucky, or
    2. does your thinking need updating?
  3. repair as best you can.

    If a, retry identically. If results don’t change, it is b.

Reference

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